Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 26?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $604 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$603.85
$93.73
79¢ → 84.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f | Noavg 78.3¢ | $313 | $328 | +$15 | 55% 505-413 (918) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $37.52 | $121.18 | +$83.65 | 52% 526-483 (1009) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 80.8¢ | $123.4 | $120 | -$3.19 | 51% 269-258 (527) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 80.4¢ | $35.52 | $33.56 | -$1.74 | 56% 141-113 (254) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $1.11 | $1.11 | +$0 | 49% 66-68 (134) |
Invested
$313
Value
$328
PnL
+$15
Record
55%
505-413 (918)
Invested
$37.52
Value
$121.18
PnL
+$83.65
Record
52%
526-483 (1009)
IstarothInvested
$123.4
Value
$120
PnL
-$3.19
Record
51%
269-258 (527)
Invested
$35.52
Value
$33.56
PnL
-$1.74
Record
56%
141-113 (254)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
66-68 (134)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.