Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 25?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$222.32
62.8¢ → 69¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 62¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$203.19 | 50% 1550-1521 (3071) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f | Noavg 68.4¢ | $239.98 | $245.7 | +$14.5 | 54% 467-405 (872) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 65.6¢ | $145.99 | $155.74 | +$3.08 | 55% 105-85 (190) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $85.24 | $84 | -$1.24 | 57% 263-196 (459) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.2¢ | $58.98 | $57.96 | -$1.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $26.26 | $26.04 | -$0.22 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $15.32 | $8.68 | +$1.55 | 65% 6460-3412 (9872) |
Invested
$2,096.53
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$203.19
Record
50%
1550-1521 (3071)
Invested
$239.98
Value
$245.7
PnL
+$14.5
Record
54%
467-405 (872)
Invested
$145.99
Value
$155.74
PnL
+$3.08
Record
55%
105-85 (190)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$85.24
Value
$84
PnL
-$1.24
Record
57%
263-196 (459)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.32
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$1.55
Record
65%
6460-3412 (9872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.