Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 26?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 75¢ · $308 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$307.59
$18.92
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 60.8¢ | $147.21 | $181.7 | +$19.95 | 54% 146-122 (268) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 61.4¢ | $116.62 | $117.61 | +$5.18 | 50% 269-269 (538) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.4¢ | $68.73 | $84.01 | +$14.79 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $43.2 | $33.6 | -$9.62 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $9.31 | $8.27 | -$1.04 | 54% 4489-3820 (8309) |
Invested
$147.21
Value
$181.7
PnL
+$19.95
Record
54%
146-122 (268)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$116.62
Value
$117.61
PnL
+$5.18
Record
50%
269-269 (538)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.31
Value
$8.27
PnL
-$1.04
Record
54%
4489-3820 (8309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.