Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $172 held · ends Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$172.01

Combined PnL

-$6.11

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 99.8¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$133.83

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$4.2

Yes1 trader

Total Value$38.19

Total Shares95

Combined PnL-$1.91

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 93¢	$71.08	$75.8	+$4.73	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$59.41	$41.04	-$8.85	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$38.19	$38.19	-$1.91	55% 151-124 (275)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 57¢	$22.8	$10.95	+$3.9	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.02	$6.04	-$3.98	63% 16296-9616 (25912)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$71.08

Value

$75.8

PnL

+$4.73

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$59.41

Value

$41.04

PnL

-$8.85

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.19

Value

$38.19

PnL

-$1.91

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$22.8

Value

$10.95

PnL

+$3.9

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$3.98

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.