Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 57¢ · $413 held · ends Oct 26

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$412.6

Combined PnL

$10.7

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$69.67

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$20.4

No2 traders

Total Value$28.07

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$9.7

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$221.25	$314.86	+$27.6	52% 536-490 (1026)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.7¢	$132.46	$176.7	+$27.6
└ No leg	Noavg 62.6¢	$138.16	$138.16	+$0
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$31.43	$60.67	+$21.23	55% 151-124 (275)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$20.5	$17.54	-$2.96	49% 269-276 (545)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$20.68	$10.53	-$6.73	56% 10500-8289 (18789)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 51.1¢	$9.84	$9	-$0.84	54% 4513-3843 (8356)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$221.25

Value

$314.86

PnL

+$27.6

Record

52%

536-490 (1026)

Both legs:

Yes$132.4618.7¢+$27.6

No$138.1662.6¢+$0

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.43

Value

$60.67

PnL

+$21.23

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$20.5

Value

$17.54

PnL

-$2.96

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$20.68

Value

$10.53

PnL

-$6.73

Record

56%

10500-8289 (18789)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.84

Value

PnL

-$0.84

Record

54%

4513-3843 (8356)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.4%

57.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.