Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 26?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.7¢ · $50 held · ends Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$50.26

Combined PnL

-$8.73

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$40.16

Total Shares265

Combined PnL-$8.45

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.1

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$0.28

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$51.97	$38.08	-$3.06	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 97.4¢	$15.25	$10.03	-$0.22	49% 269-278 (547)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$39.24	$1.06	+$15.26	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 29.6¢	$21.45	$0.8	-$20.66	47% 68-78 (146)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$0.22	$0.22	-$0	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$0.13	$0.07	-$0.06	46% 1643-1956 (3599)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$51.97

Value

$38.08

PnL

-$3.06

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.25

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$39.24

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$15.26

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$21.45

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$20.66

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

1643-1956 (3599)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5676.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5776.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.