Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 27?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 37¢ · $265 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$264.79
-$155.66
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $260.75 | $90.54 | -$170.21 | 52% 538-490 (1028) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 72.3¢ | $61.64 | $74.55 | +$12.91 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $49.19 | $47.41 | -$1.78 | 54% 4740-4091 (8831) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $28.19 | $25.75 | -$0.8 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.6¢ | $23.09 | $20.33 | +$2.62 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $4.62 | $6.21 | +$1.6 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
Invested
$260.75
Value
$90.54
PnL
-$170.21
Record
52%
538-490 (1028)
balthazar<$100Invested
$61.64
Value
$74.55
PnL
+$12.91
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Invested
$49.19
Value
$47.41
PnL
-$1.78
Record
54%
4740-4091 (8831)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$28.19
Value
$25.75
PnL
-$0.8
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Invested
$23.09
Value
$20.33
PnL
+$2.62
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$1.6
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.