Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 27?

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 43¢ · $400 held · ends Oct 27

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$399.86

Combined PnL

$18.55

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 43¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$284.27

Total Shares646

Combined PnL+$18.55

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 41.1¢	$263.55	$282.05	+$18.5	52% 544-494 (1038)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$120.73	$115.59	-$2.92	44% 269-349 (618)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.1¢	$66.72	$66.55	-$0.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.3¢	$51.75	$49.04	-$2.68
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$2.17	$2.22	+$0.05	46% 88-102 (190)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$263.55

Value

$282.05

PnL

+$18.5

Record

52%

544-494 (1038)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$120.73

Value

$115.59

PnL

-$2.92

Record

44%

269-349 (618)

Both legs:

No$66.7257.1¢-$0.24

Yes$51.7544.3¢-$2.68

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

88-102 (190)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.