Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 26?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 66¢ · $266 held · ends Oct 26

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$265.57

Combined PnL

-$24.35

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 65.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$164.77

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$24.11

Yes1 trader

Total Value$10.79

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$0.24

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 76¢	$119.58	$104.15	-$15.43	55% 151-124 (275)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$93.42	$90.01	-$1.07	49% 269-276 (545)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.6¢	$62.65	$48.61	-$14.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.4¢	$28.26	$41.4	+$13.16
balthazar<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$23.28	$21.26	-$2.02	63% 15568-9006 (24574)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 57.7¢	$19.91	$18.63	-$1.28	52% 536-490 (1026)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 68¢	$19.24	$13.68	-$5.56	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$23.27	$10.79	-$0.24	56% 10604-8367 (18971)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$6.87	$7.05	+$0.18	47% 67-77 (144)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$119.58

Value

$104.15

PnL

-$15.43

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$93.42

Value

$90.01

PnL

-$1.07

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Both legs:

No$62.6569.6¢-$14.23

Yes$28.2631.4¢+$13.16

balthazar<$100

Invested

$23.28

Value

$21.26

PnL

-$2.02

Record

63%

15568-9006 (24574)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$19.91

Value

$18.63

PnL

-$1.28

Record

52%

536-490 (1026)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$19.24

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$5.56

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.27

Value

$10.79

PnL

-$0.24

Record

56%

10604-8367 (18971)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.87

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.