Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 26?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 39¢ · $151 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$151.21
$9.27
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $84.18 | $77.79 | -$4.44 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66¢ | $54.09 | $50.02 | -$4.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $28.05 | $27.77 | -$0.36 | |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.9¢ | $61.06 | $70.33 | +$9.27 | 52% 525-482 (1007) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.09 | $3.09 | +$0 | 38% 67-108 (175) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$84.18
Value
$77.79
PnL
-$4.44
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.06
Value
$70.33
PnL
+$9.27
Record
52%
525-482 (1007)
Invested
$3.09
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
67-108 (175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.