Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $706 held · ends Oct 26

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$705.96

Combined PnL

-$14.87

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 74¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$179.27

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$0.45

Yes2 traders

Total Value$46.19

Total Shares194

Combined PnL-$15.33

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$422.44	$480.51	+$58.07	52% 526-483 (1009)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.6¢	$268.96	$283.04	+$14.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.9¢	$153.48	$197.47	+$43.98
HE hello.67	Noavg 63¢	$105.42	$118.56	+$13.14	50% 1575-1562 (3137)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$67.97	$45.39	-$6.84	51% 269-258 (527)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$48.55	$40.66	-$15.84	56% 141-113 (254)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 68.3¢	$179.92	$15.32	-$5.85	56% 3466-2703 (6169)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$5.01	$5.53	+$0.52	49% 66-68 (134)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$422.44

Value

$480.51

PnL

+$58.07

Record

52%

526-483 (1009)

Both legs:

No$268.9664.6¢+$14.08

Yes$153.4824.9¢+$43.98

hello.67

Invested

$105.42

Value

$118.56

PnL

+$13.14

Record

50%

1575-1562 (3137)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$67.97

Value

$45.39

PnL

-$6.84

Record

51%

269-258 (527)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.55

Value

$40.66

PnL

-$15.84

Record

56%

141-113 (254)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$179.92

Value

$15.32

PnL

-$5.85

Record

56%

3466-2703 (6169)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$0.52

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.