Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 27?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 36¢ · $560 held · ends Oct 27

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$560.07

Combined PnL

-$37.03

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$316.78

Total Shares880

Combined PnL-$31.95

No2 traders

Total Value$167.78

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$5.08

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 35¢	$344.94	$316.78	-$31.95	52% 544-494 (1038)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 66.1¢	$181.14	$165.22	-$4.84	54% 4873-4188 (9061)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$81.71	$75.5	-$2.18	44% 269-349 (618)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.8¢	$50.46	$48.32	-$2.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.4¢	$26.75	$27.18	+$0.42
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 70¢	$2.8	$2.56	-$0.24	46% 88-102 (190)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$344.94

Value

$316.78

PnL

-$31.95

Record

52%

544-494 (1038)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$181.14

Value

$165.22

PnL

-$4.84

Record

54%

4873-4188 (9061)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$81.71

Value

$75.5

PnL

-$2.18

Record

44%

269-349 (618)

Both legs:

No$50.4666.8¢-$2.6

Yes$26.7535.4¢+$0.42

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$0.24

Record

46%

88-102 (190)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.