Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $241 held · ends Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$240.88

Combined PnL

-$8.38

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$142.18

Total Shares592

Combined PnL+$6.04

No4 traders

Total Value$98.7

Total Shares122

Combined PnL-$14.42

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$136.14	$142.18	+$6.04	48% 505-558 (1063)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$92.44	$73.36	-$19.08	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 83¢	$14.14	$14	-$0.02	49% 269-278 (547)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$6.15	$5.92	-$0.23	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$29.19	$5.42	+$4.9	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$136.14

Value

$142.18

PnL

+$6.04

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$92.44

Value

$73.36

PnL

-$19.08

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$14.14

Value

$14

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.15

Value

$5.92

PnL

-$0.23

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$29.19

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$4.9

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.