Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 26?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $282 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$282.22
$44.94
76.2¢ → 99.6¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 76.5¢ | $135.18 | $159.83 | +$24.65 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 59.3¢ | $62.29 | $61.74 | +$0.02 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59.3¢ | $36.59 | $36.43 | -$0.21 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.6¢ | $25.08 | $25.31 | +$0.24 | |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $46.86 | $45.39 | -$1.48 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $51.76 | $11.39 | +$20.25 | 54% 4740-4091 (8831) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $8.88 | $3.87 | +$1.5 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
balthazarInvested
$135.18
Value
$159.83
PnL
+$24.65
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$62.29
Value
$61.74
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.86
Value
$45.39
PnL
-$1.48
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
Invested
$51.76
Value
$11.39
PnL
+$20.25
Record
54%
4740-4091 (8831)
Invested
$8.88
Value
$3.87
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.