Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 26?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 74¢ · $198 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$197.56
$31.32
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $70.36 | $99.99 | +$29.64 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 71.3¢ | $72.7 | $67.45 | -$4.94 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.3¢ | $51.17 | $43.06 | -$8.12 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $21.2 | $24.4 | +$3.18 | |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $24.25 | $17.68 | -$6.56 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $326.29 | $10.17 | +$11.19 | 54% 4740-4091 (8831) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $19.76 | $2.26 | -$2.94 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$70.36
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$29.64
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$72.7
Value
$67.45
PnL
-$4.94
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.25
Value
$17.68
PnL
-$6.56
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
Invested
$326.29
Value
$10.17
PnL
+$11.19
Record
54%
4740-4091 (8831)
Invested
$19.76
Value
$2.26
PnL
-$2.94
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.