Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $340 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$339.91
$2.04
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $277.84 | $285.95 | +$8.11 | 52% 526-483 (1009) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $151.12 | $151.55 | +$0.42 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.7¢ | $126.72 | $134.41 | +$7.69 | |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $36.71 | $38.75 | +$2.04 | 50% 1575-1562 (3137) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $15.2 | +$0 | 56% 3466-2703 (6169) |
Invested
$277.84
Value
$285.95
PnL
+$8.11
Record
52%
526-483 (1009)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.71
Value
$38.75
PnL
+$2.04
Record
50%
1575-1562 (3137)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$15.2
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3466-2703 (6169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.