Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 66¢ · $481 held · ends Oct 27

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$481.44

Combined PnL

-$3.38

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 66¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$379.23

Total Shares477

Combined PnL-$18.63

No3 traders

Total Value$102.21

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$15.25

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Yesavg 56.8¢	$243.46	$238.76	-$2.36	43% 269-355 (624)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 65.8¢	$143.54	$128.67	-$14.87	56% 171-137 (308)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$47.32	$58.79	+$11.47	50% 1604-1595 (3199)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 40.9¢	$26.28	$26.37	+$0.09	62% 18410-11080 (29490)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Noavg 32.1¢	$13.36	$17.05	+$3.69	52% 544-497 (1041)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$13.19	$11.79	-$1.4	61% 1454-917 (2371)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$243.46

Value

$238.76

PnL

-$2.36

Record

43%

269-355 (624)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$143.54

Value

$128.67

PnL

-$14.87

Record

56%

171-137 (308)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$47.32

Value

$58.79

PnL

+$11.47

Record

50%

1604-1595 (3199)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$26.28

Value

$26.37

PnL

+$0.09

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Invested

$13.36

Value

$17.05

PnL

+$3.69

Record

52%

544-497 (1041)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.19

Value

$11.79

PnL

-$1.4

Record

61%

1454-917 (2371)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.