Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $393 held · ends Oct 27

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$393.03

Combined PnL

$29.9

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 74.5¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$381.46

Total Shares397

Combined PnL+$27.86

Yes1 trader

Total Value$11.57

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$2.04

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 80.2¢	$154.73	$170.74	+$16.02	55% 191-155 (346)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$91.39	$86.3	-$5.09	62% 20089-12550 (32639)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$87.82	$86.25	-$1.02	38% 273-442 (715)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 77¢	$20.22	$38.17	+$17.95	61% 1479-934 (2413)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$9.53	$11.57	+$2.04	53% 6112-5366 (11478)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$154.73

Value

$170.74

PnL

+$16.02

Record

55%

191-155 (346)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$91.39

Value

$86.3

PnL

-$5.09

Record

62%

20089-12550 (32639)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$87.82

Value

$86.25

PnL

-$1.02

Record

38%

273-442 (715)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$20.22

Value

$38.17

PnL

+$17.95

Record

61%

1479-934 (2413)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.53

Value

$11.57

PnL

+$2.04

Record

53%

6112-5366 (11478)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.