Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $67 held · ends Oct 26

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$66.94

Combined PnL

$2.58

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$64.8

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$2.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.14

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$0.23

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$32.49	$32.54	+$0.04	47% 67-77 (144)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.54	$29.18	-$0.36	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$38.85	$3.08	+$3.13	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.38	$2.14	-$0.23	54% 4556-3891 (8447)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$32.49

Value

$32.54

PnL

+$0.04

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$29.54

Value

$29.18

PnL

-$0.36

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.85

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$3.13

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$0.23

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.