Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 26?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 40¢ · $110 held · ends Oct 26

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$109.99

Combined PnL

-$4.59

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$68.39

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$0.46

No5 traders

Total Value$41.6

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$4.13

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 66.2¢	$41.67	$41.17	-$0.26	50% 269-269 (538)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 35.4¢	$33.07	$28.93	-$4.14	64% 14982-8561 (23543)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$27.23	$27.23	-$0.2	54% 146-122 (268)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$5.97	$5.96	-$0.02	49% 66-70 (136)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3	$3.1	+$0.1	47% 504-558 (1062)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$3.2	$3.1	-$0.1	54% 4489-3820 (8309)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$0.48	$0.52	+$0.03	56% 10449-8249 (18698)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.67

Value

$41.17

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

269-269 (538)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$33.07

Value

$28.93

PnL

-$4.14

Record

64%

14982-8561 (23543)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.23

Value

$27.23

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

146-122 (268)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$5.97

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

66-70 (136)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

504-558 (1062)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

4489-3820 (8309)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

10449-8249 (18698)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.