Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 26?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$16.13

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 73.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$198.36

Total Shares283

Combined PnL-$16.13

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$842.63	$850.83	+$28.16	47% 501-557 (1058)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$671.48	$640.71	+$15.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.2¢	$171.16	$210.11	+$13.15
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 76¢	$188.34	$173.47	-$14.87	55% 505-409 (914)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$82.4	$78.8	-$3.22	51% 269-254 (523)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.4¢	$62.75	$56	-$6.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$19.24	$22.8	+$3.54
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 76¢	$15.25	$14.05	-$1.2	56% 140-112 (252)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.9	$7.25	+$0.35	—
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 78¢	$4	$3.59	-$0.41	36% 13223-23096 (36319)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$842.63

Value

$850.83

PnL

+$28.16

Record

47%

501-557 (1058)

Both legs:

No$671.4873.4¢+$15.01

Yes$171.1623.2¢+$13.15

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$188.34

Value

$173.47

PnL

-$14.87

Record

55%

505-409 (914)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$82.4

Value

$78.8

PnL

-$3.22

Record

51%

269-254 (523)

Both legs:

No$62.7578.4¢-$6.75

Yes$19.2424¢+$3.54

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$15.25

Value

$14.05

PnL

-$1.2

Record

56%

140-112 (252)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$0.35

Record

—

AJSV<$100

Invested

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$0.41

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.