Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 27?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 44¢ · $702 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
1 arb excluded
$701.56
-$0.58
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 35.8¢ | $383.17 | $384.96 | +$1.79 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 63.8¢ | $201.43 | $197.58 | -$3.18 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.8¢ | $126.09 | $123.48 | -$2.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $74.53 | $74.09 | -$0.56 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 62.3¢ | $99.23 | $77.49 | -$3.98 | 54% 4740-4091 (8831) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 61.6¢ | $21.53 | $22.89 | +$1.36 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
CE 0xce0b...b974<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $12 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $6.39 | $6.65 | +$0.25 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
Invested
$383.17
Value
$384.96
PnL
+$1.79
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$201.43
Value
$197.58
PnL
-$3.18
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.23
Value
$77.49
PnL
-$3.98
Record
54%
4740-4091 (8831)
balthazar<$100Invested
$21.53
Value
$22.89
PnL
+$1.36
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Invested
$12
Value
$12
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$6.39
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.25
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.