Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 27?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 43¢ · $875 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$875.02
-$24.27
47¢ → 43¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $327.29 | $302.39 | -$24.9 | 50% 1574-1559 (3133) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $277.05 | $274.02 | -$3.04 | 47% 499-555 (1054) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 55.1¢ | $130.86 | $133.03 | +$2.18 | 56% 3416-2671 (6087) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $101 | $100 | -$1 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.5¢ | $55.5 | $56 | +$0.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $45.5 | $44 | -$1.5 | |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $64.09 | $65.58 | +$1.49 | 64% 418-231 (649) |
Invested
$327.29
Value
$302.39
PnL
-$24.9
Record
50%
1574-1559 (3133)
Invested
$277.05
Value
$274.02
PnL
-$3.04
Record
47%
499-555 (1054)
Invested
$130.86
Value
$133.03
PnL
+$2.18
Record
56%
3416-2671 (6087)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$101
Value
$100
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$64.09
Value
$65.58
PnL
+$1.49
Record
64%
418-231 (649)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.