Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $534 held · ends Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$534.43

Combined PnL

$264.91

Smart Money Entry

31.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$427.05

Total Shares924

Combined PnL+$266.97

No2 traders

Total Value$19.47

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$2.06

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$149.14	$417.31	+$268.17	48% 505-558 (1063)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$86.48	$87.37	+$1.89	49% 269-276 (545)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.6¢	$50.59	$48.36	-$2.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.9¢	$34.69	$39.02	+$4.35
balthazar<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$13.7	$10.8	-$2.9	63% 15568-9006 (24574)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$11.06	$9.74	-$1.2	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$21.73	$8.67	+$0.84	56% 10604-8367 (18971)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$149.14

Value

$417.31

PnL

+$268.17

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$86.48

Value

$87.37

PnL

+$1.89

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Both legs:

No$50.5959.6¢-$2.46

Yes$34.6940.9¢+$4.35

balthazar<$100

Invested

$13.7

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$2.9

Record

63%

15568-9006 (24574)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.06

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$1.2

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.73

Value

$8.67

PnL

+$0.84

Record

56%

10604-8367 (18971)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.