Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 26?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $357 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$357.09
$6.86
81.2¢ → 85.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f | Noavg 82.3¢ | $189.49 | $188.72 | -$0.77 | 55% 500-409 (909) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $96.65 | $101.74 | +$5.09 | 47% 499-555 (1054) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $40.17 | $42.53 | +$2.36 | 56% 3416-2671 (6087) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 79.3¢ | $20.02 | $20 | -$0.02 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $3.9 | $4.1 | +$0.2 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
Invested
$189.49
Value
$188.72
PnL
-$0.77
Record
55%
500-409 (909)
Invested
$96.65
Value
$101.74
PnL
+$5.09
Record
47%
499-555 (1054)
Invested
$40.17
Value
$42.53
PnL
+$2.36
Record
56%
3416-2671 (6087)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.02
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.2
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.