Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 25?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $156 held · ends Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$155.9

Combined PnL

-$9.32

Smart Money Entry

16.6¢ → 0.4¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$110

Total Shares806

Combined PnL-$21.43

No1 trader

Total Value$45.9

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$12.11

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$102.92	$89.85	-$13.07	48% 481-527 (1008)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$33.79	$45.9	+$12.11	65% 4147-2191 (6338)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.7¢	$8.69	$14.58	+$5.9	54% 467-405 (872)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.3¢	$14.64	$3.92	-$10.72	56% 3178-2517 (5695)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$17.48	$1.64	-$3.54	65% 6460-3412 (9872)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$102.92

Value

$89.85

PnL

-$13.07

Record

48%

481-527 (1008)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$33.79

Value

$45.9

PnL

+$12.11

Record

65%

4147-2191 (6338)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.69

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$5.9

Record

54%

467-405 (872)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.64

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$10.72

Record

56%

3178-2517 (5695)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.48

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$3.54

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.