Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on October 26?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 56¢ · $119 held · ended Oct 26

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$118.57

Combined PnL

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$18.85

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$6.39

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13.24

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.39

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 38.5¢	$70.29	$86.49	+$16.2	61% 1475-932 (2407)
└ No leg	Noavg 38.5¢	$45.02	$51.48	+$6.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.4¢	$32.1	$35.01	+$9.74
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 29.1¢	$12.46	$18.85	+$6.39	53% 6100-5351 (11451)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$14.24	$10.39	-$1.39	57% 12489-9413 (21902)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0	55% 16610-13320 (29930)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$70.29

Value

$86.49

PnL

+$16.2

Record

61%

1475-932 (2407)

Both legs:

No$45.0238.5¢+$6.46

Yes$32.151.4¢+$9.74

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$12.46

Value

$18.85

PnL

+$6.39

Record

53%

6100-5351 (11451)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.24

Value

$10.39

PnL

-$1.39

Record

57%

12489-9413 (21902)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

16610-13320 (29930)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.