Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on October 25?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 98¢ · $616 held · ended Oct 25

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$615.95

Combined PnL

$273.59

Smart Money Entry

12.7¢ → 97.5¢

+668% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$587.53

Total Shares1,428

Combined PnL+$273.82

No1 trader

Total Value$28.41

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$0.23

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 16¢	$0.8	$300.93	+$60.59	47% 499-555 (1054)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 9.1¢	$66.55	$281.84	+$215.29	50% 1574-1559 (3133)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 89¢	$28.64	$28.41	-$0.23	55% 137-110 (247)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$2.4	$1.85	-$0.55	38% 67-108 (175)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2	$1.85	-$0.35	56% 15016-11963 (26979)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 41.1¢	$2.41	$1.05	-$1.16	56% 3416-2671 (6087)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$300.93

PnL

+$60.59

Record

47%

499-555 (1054)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$66.55

Value

$281.84

PnL

+$215.29

Record

50%

1574-1559 (3133)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$28.64

Value

$28.41

PnL

-$0.23

Record

55%

137-110 (247)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.55

Record

38%

67-108 (175)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.35

Record

56%

15016-11963 (26979)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.41

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.16

Record

56%

3416-2671 (6087)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.