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Yes
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 25?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$288.7
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,202
Combined PnL+$288.7
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 43%No — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $337.03 | — | +$287.39 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.2¢ | $0.08 | — | -$0.08 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $4.75 | — | +$1.39 | 56% 15449-12313 (27762) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 35.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1583-1568 (3151) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 10604-8367 (18971) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTRInvested
$337.03
Value
—
PnL
+$287.39
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
—
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
—
PnL
+$1.39
Record
56%
15449-12313 (27762)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1583-1568 (3151)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
10604-8367 (18971)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xfea961d9...a8e93c
Slug
highest-temperature-in-seattle-on-october-25-2026-54-55f