Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on October 25?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 99.9¢

+63% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,789

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$260.49

Total Shares1,042

Combined PnL-$19.85

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 60.9¢	$1.7K	$2.8K	+$1.1K	50% 1574-1559 (3133)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$244.09	$210.3	-$14.98	47% 499-555 (1054)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$31.25	$28.93	-$2.31	55% 137-110 (247)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$57.3	$21.25	-$2.56	56% 3416-2671 (6087)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$13.32	$15.36	+$2.04	38% 67-108 (175)
00 0x005e...6d8e<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.05	$6.05	-$0.01	—

hello.67

Invested

$1,686.09

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

1574-1559 (3133)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$244.09

Value

$210.3

PnL

-$14.98

Record

47%

499-555 (1054)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.25

Value

$28.93

PnL

-$2.31

Record

55%

137-110 (247)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.3

Value

$21.25

PnL

-$2.56

Record

56%

3416-2671 (6087)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$13.32

Value

$15.36

PnL

+$2.04

Record

38%

67-108 (175)

0x005e...6d8e<$100

Invested

$6.05

Value

$6.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.