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YesYes
balthazar<$100NoYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on October 25?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$308.27
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,800
Combined PnL-$308.27
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 83%No — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $68.32 | — | -$241.71 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $66.55 | — | -$66.55 | 50% 1583-1568 (3151) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 10604-8367 (18971) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTRInvested
$68.32
Value
—
PnL
-$241.71
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
$66.55
Value
—
PnL
-$66.55
Record
50%
1583-1568 (3151)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
10604-8367 (18971)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x6dd9ed72...5748cb
Slug
highest-temperature-in-seattle-on-october-25-2026-50-51f