Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $178 held · ends Oct 26

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$178.23

Combined PnL

-$30.63

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 88¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$127.31

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$1.37

Yes2 traders

Total Value$50.92

Total Shares318

Combined PnL-$29.26

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 85¢	$94.15	$93.05	-$1.11	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$76.27	$48.78	-$27.49	52% 538-490 (1028)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 73¢	$30.3	$30	-$0.01	49% 269-278 (547)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.51	$4.26	-$0.25	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.2¢	$3.91	$2.14	-$1.77	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$94.15

Value

$93.05

PnL

-$1.11

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.27

Value

$48.78

PnL

-$27.49

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$30.3

Value

$30

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.91

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$1.77

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.