Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 26?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 27¢ · $532 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$532.44
-$60.65
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 61.9¢ | $153.34 | $178.36 | +$17.59 | 56% 168-130 (298) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $175.21 | $172.74 | -$2.05 | 44% 269-349 (618) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.2¢ | $107.38 | $124.37 | +$16.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39¢ | $67.4 | $48.37 | -$19.02 | |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $239.9 | $160.07 | -$79.83 | 52% 544-494 (1038) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $16.19 | $17.58 | +$1.39 | 64% 1409-791 (2200) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $3.48 | $3.69 | +$0.2 | 46% 88-102 (190) |
Invested
$153.34
Value
$178.36
PnL
+$17.59
Record
56%
168-130 (298)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$175.21
Value
$172.74
PnL
-$2.05
Record
44%
269-349 (618)
Both legs:
Invested
$239.9
Value
$160.07
PnL
-$79.83
Record
52%
544-494 (1038)
Invested
$16.19
Value
$17.58
PnL
+$1.39
Record
64%
1409-791 (2200)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$0.2
Record
46%
88-102 (190)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.