Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on October 26?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 37¢ · $513 held · ends Oct 26

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$512.83

Combined PnL

-$7.1

Smart Money Entry

27¢ → 37¢

+37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$406.09

Total Shares1,251

Combined PnL-$11.86

No3 traders

Total Value$106.74

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$4.75

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$324.46	$346.14	+$21.68	52% 538-490 (1028)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 63.1¢	$109.13	$58.23	+$7.38	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.3¢	$88.81	$56.83	-$31.98	55% 152-125 (277)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$58.4	$40.01	-$3.86	49% 269-278 (547)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$7.27	$8.5	+$1.23	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.8¢	$4.67	$3.11	-$1.56	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$324.46

Value

$346.14

PnL

+$21.68

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$109.13

Value

$58.23

PnL

+$7.38

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.81

Value

$56.83

PnL

-$31.98

Record

55%

152-125 (277)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$58.4

Value

$40.01

PnL

-$3.86

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.27

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$1.23

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.67

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$1.56

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.