Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $102 held · ended Oct 26

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$101.69

Combined PnL

$0.7

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$86.74

Total Shares101

Combined PnL-$2.14

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.94

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$2.84

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 79¢	$42.17	$43.56	+$1.39	64% 1409-791 (2200)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$26.66	$23.18	-$3.47	46% 88-102 (190)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$20.06	$20	-$0.05	44% 269-349 (618)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$12.11	$14.94	+$2.84	56% 168-130 (298)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$42.17

Value

$43.56

PnL

+$1.39

Record

64%

1409-791 (2200)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$26.66

Value

$23.18

PnL

-$3.47

Record

46%

88-102 (190)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.06

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

269-349 (618)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.11

Value

$14.94

PnL

+$2.84

Record

56%

168-130 (298)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.2%

78.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.