Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 66¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$359.14

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 65.5¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,242

Combined PnL+$364.93

No1 trader

Total Value$8.03

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$5.79

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 50.5¢	$390.1	$683.22	+$293.12	52% 549-504 (1053)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 64.5¢	$135.31	$174.01	+$38.7	61% 1475-932 (2407)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 56.9¢	$90.97	$126.86	+$35.89	55% 185-154 (339)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 67.3¢	$71.91	$62.29	-$2.78	40% 271-412 (683)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 29.8¢	$14.42	$8.03	-$5.79	57% 12489-9413 (21902)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$390.1

Value

$683.22

PnL

+$293.12

Record

52%

549-504 (1053)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$135.31

Value

$174.01

PnL

+$38.7

Record

61%

1475-932 (2407)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$90.97

Value

$126.86

PnL

+$35.89

Record

55%

185-154 (339)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.91

Value

$62.29

PnL

-$2.78

Record

40%

271-412 (683)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$14.42

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$5.79

Record

57%

12489-9413 (21902)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.