Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 27?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $373 held · ends Oct 27

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$372.66

Combined PnL

$47.19

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 81¢

+38% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$176.67

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$43.36

Yes1 trader

Total Value$50.08

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$3.83

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 57.2¢	$119.67	$160.7	+$41.03	61% 1497-943 (2440)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$158.17	$145.92	+$5.15	36% 273-477 (750)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.7¢	$88.82	$109.44	+$19.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.4¢	$50.55	$36.48	-$13.96
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$37.9	$50.08	+$3.83	55% 200-166 (366)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84¢	$13.64	$15.97	+$2.34	57% 12548-9494 (22042)

241532532432

Invested

$119.67

Value

$160.7

PnL

+$41.03

Record

61%

1497-943 (2440)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$158.17

Value

$145.92

PnL

+$5.15

Record

36%

273-477 (750)

Both legs:

No$88.8265.7¢+$19.11

Yes$50.5537.4¢-$13.96

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.9

Value

$50.08

PnL

+$3.83

Record

55%

200-166 (366)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.64

Value

$15.97

PnL

+$2.34

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.