Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 26?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 34¢ · $139 held · ends Oct 26

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$139.1

Combined PnL

$1.37

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$89.4

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$0.28

No3 traders

Total Value$49.71

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$1.65

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 49.1¢	$89.68	$89.4	-$0.28	54% 146-122 (268)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$30.36	$30.03	-$0.01	50% 269-269 (538)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$13.22	$13.27	+$0.06	49% 66-70 (136)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 66¢	$19.6	$6.4	+$1.6	54% 4489-3820 (8309)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$89.68

Value

$89.4

PnL

-$0.28

Record

54%

146-122 (268)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$30.36

Value

$30.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

269-269 (538)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$13.22

Value

$13.27

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

66-70 (136)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$1.6

Record

54%

4489-3820 (8309)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.