Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $174 held · ends Oct 26

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$174.42

Combined PnL

-$30.19

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 86.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$139.75

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$72.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$34.66

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$42.06

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 85.7¢	$114.48	$50.74	-$63.74	63% 15568-9006 (24574)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 62.4¢	$33.84	$46.34	+$12.49	47% 67-77 (144)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$27.88	$23.68	+$2.5	56% 10604-8367 (18971)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$42.55	$19	-$23.5	49% 269-276 (545)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$25.61	$18.41	+$32.01	55% 151-124 (275)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.7¢	$18.42	$16.26	+$10.05	54% 4556-3891 (8447)

balthazar

Invested

$114.48

Value

$50.74

PnL

-$63.74

Record

63%

15568-9006 (24574)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$33.84

Value

$46.34

PnL

+$12.49

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.88

Value

$23.68

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

10604-8367 (18971)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$42.55

Value

$19

PnL

-$23.5

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.61

Value

$18.41

PnL

+$32.01

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.42

Value

$16.26

PnL

+$10.05

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.