Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 25?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $222 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$222.03
$19.58
80.4¢ → 99¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 79.1¢ | $148.95 | $186.55 | +$12.12 | 55% 105-85 (190) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $75.21 | $35.48 | +$7.46 | 65% 6460-3412 (9872) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.