Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 27?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 72¢ · $375 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$374.82
$44.97
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $237.53 | $276.88 | +$39.35 | 52% 551-504 (1055) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $76.65 | $75.15 | -$0.24 | 38% 273-442 (715) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.7¢ | $48.65 | $44.34 | -$4.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.7¢ | $26.82 | $30.81 | +$4.08 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $9.06 | $12.13 | +$3.06 | 57% 12531-9470 (22001) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $6.6 | $8.2 | +$1.6 | 61% 1479-934 (2413) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.5 | $2.46 | +$0.96 | 53% 6112-5366 (11478) |
Invested
$237.53
Value
$276.88
PnL
+$39.35
Record
52%
551-504 (1055)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$76.65
Value
$75.15
PnL
-$0.24
Record
38%
273-442 (715)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.06
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$3.06
Record
57%
12531-9470 (22001)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$1.6
Record
61%
1479-934 (2413)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.46
PnL
+$0.96
Record
53%
6112-5366 (11478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.