Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $170 held · ends Oct 26

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$169.77

Combined PnL

$2.74

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 97.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$162.34

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$2.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.43

Total Shares136

Combined PnL+$0.41

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$82.58	$83.12	+$0.8	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$58.93	$56.57	-$2.36	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19.64	$22.66	+$3.9	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$6.78	$7.23	+$0.45	55% 152-125 (277)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.24	$0.2	-$0.04	47% 68-78 (146)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$82.58

Value

$83.12

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$58.93

Value

$56.57

PnL

-$2.36

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$19.64

Value

$22.66

PnL

+$3.9

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.78

Value

$7.23

PnL

+$0.45

Record

55%

152-125 (277)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.