Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 26?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 43¢ · $41 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$40.91
$6.57
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $23.41 | $29.35 | +$5.94 | 55% 137-110 (247) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $23.98 | $8.6 | +$0.63 | 56% 3416-2671 (6087) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.96 | $2.96 | +$0 | 38% 67-108 (175) |
Invested
$23.41
Value
$29.35
PnL
+$5.94
Record
55%
137-110 (247)
Invested
$23.98
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$0.63
Record
56%
3416-2671 (6087)
Invested
$2.96
Value
$2.96
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
67-108 (175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.