Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 26?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $306 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$305.69
-$12.96
92.9¢ → 89¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $92.39 | $86.75 | -$5.64 | 56% 674-537 (1211) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $80.23 | $75.8 | -$4.43 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $53.4 | $53.4 | +$0 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $54.89 | $53.1 | -$1.79 | 55% 152-125 (277) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $44.04 | $36.65 | -$1.1 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
Invested
$92.39
Value
$86.75
PnL
-$5.64
Record
56%
674-537 (1211)
Invested
$80.23
Value
$75.8
PnL
-$4.43
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
balthazar<$100Invested
$53.4
Value
$53.4
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Invested
$54.89
Value
$53.1
PnL
-$1.79
Record
55%
152-125 (277)
Invested
$44.04
Value
$36.65
PnL
-$1.1
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.