Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 26?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 66¢ · $69 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
$69.32
-$0.63
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Yesavg 67.1¢ | $64.7 | $63.17 | -$1.52 | 62% 19399-11989 (31388) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 29.5¢ | $5.24 | $6.14 | +$0.9 | 57% 12354-9332 (21686) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.