Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$7.66

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$64.77

Total Shares196

Combined PnL-$5.89

No3 traders

Total Value$77.2

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$1.77

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$943.65	$1.0K	+$75.08	48% 481-527 (1008)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.8¢	$753.06	$791.13	+$38.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.7¢	$212.02	$227.6	+$37.01
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$70.66	$64.77	-$5.89	55% 105-85 (190)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$51.21	$53.15	+$1.94	50% 1550-1521 (3071)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$33.87	$13.05	-$2.6	65% 6460-3412 (9872)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.72	$11	-$1.11	57% 263-196 (459)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$943.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$75.08

Record

48%

481-527 (1008)

Both legs:

No$753.0663.8¢+$38.07

Yes$212.0230.7¢+$37.01

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.66

Value

$64.77

PnL

-$5.89

Record

55%

105-85 (190)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$51.21

Value

$53.15

PnL

+$1.94

Record

50%

1550-1521 (3071)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.87

Value

$13.05

PnL

-$2.6

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$14.72

Value

$11

PnL

-$1.11

Record

57%

263-196 (459)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.