Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 27?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 23¢ · $259 held · ends Oct 27

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$259.04

Combined PnL

-$32.41

Smart Money Entry

20.4¢ → 22.7¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$203.27

Total Shares894

Combined PnL-$41.55

No2 traders

Total Value$55.77

Total Shares72

Combined PnL+$9.14

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$171.78	$163.02	-$60.67	52% 556-511 (1067)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$44.95	$54.32	+$9.37	55% 205-167 (372)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$11.34	$40.25	+$19.12	61% 1506-947 (2453)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$1.68	$1.44	-$0.23	53% 6207-5451 (11658)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$171.78

Value

$163.02

PnL

-$60.67

Record

52%

556-511 (1067)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$44.95

Value

$54.32

PnL

+$9.37

Record

55%

205-167 (372)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.34

Value

$40.25

PnL

+$19.12

Record

61%

1506-947 (2453)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

6207-5451 (11658)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.6%

22.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$305.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

405.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.