Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on October 27?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $194 held · ends Oct 27

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$193.76

Combined PnL

$17.19

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$83.95

Total Shares280

Combined PnL+$22.79

No3 traders

Total Value$28.22

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$5.6

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$61.16	$83.95	+$22.79	52% 538-490 (1028)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$83.67	$81.59	-$0.42	49% 269-278 (547)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.7¢	$65.81	$57.11	-$8.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.6¢	$15.97	$24.48	+$8.3
balthazar<$100	Noavg 85¢	$16.98	$13.98	-$3	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$12.04	$9.93	-$2.11	47% 68-78 (146)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 78¢	$4.8	$4.31	-$0.49	36% 13723-24173 (37896)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.16

Value

$83.95

PnL

+$22.79

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$83.67

Value

$81.59

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

No$65.8180.7¢-$8.72

Yes$15.9719.6¢+$8.3

balthazar<$100

Invested

$16.98

Value

$13.98

PnL

-$3

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$2.11

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$0.49

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.