Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 22¢ · $264 held · ends Oct 26

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$263.72

Combined PnL

-$82.21

Smart Money Entry

25.7¢ → 22¢

-14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$158.1

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$4.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$105.62

Total Shares1,008

Combined PnL-$77.51

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 78.4¢	$169.55	$158.1	-$4.7	49% 269-276 (545)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$91.79	$44.3	-$47.49	52% 536-490 (1026)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.6¢	$71.12	$42.16	-$28.96	58% 931-679 (1610)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$22.71	$17.2	-$0.35	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$2.66	$1.96	-$0.7	55% 151-124 (275)

Istaroth

Invested

$169.55

Value

$158.1

PnL

-$4.7

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$91.79

Value

$44.3

PnL

-$47.49

Record

52%

536-490 (1026)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.12

Value

$42.16

PnL

-$28.96

Record

58%

931-679 (1610)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.71

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0.7

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.