Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 26?

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $366 held · ends Oct 26

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$365.65

Combined PnL

$10.16

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 92¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$295.42

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$10.16

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 85.9¢	$140.95	$150.89	+$9.94	55% 152-125 (277)
Istaroth	Noavg 83.7¢	$113.71	$100.62	-$0.99	49% 269-278 (547)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$50.94	$70.22	-$19.24	—
└ No leg	Noavg 90.5¢	$48.94	$49.74	+$0.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$25.6	$20.48	-$20.04
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$42.7	$43.91	+$1.21	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$140.95

Value

$150.89

PnL

+$9.94

Record

55%

152-125 (277)

Istaroth

Invested

$113.71

Value

$100.62

PnL

-$0.99

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$50.94

Value

$70.22

PnL

-$19.24

Record

—

Both legs:

No$48.9490.5¢+$0.8

Yes$25.610¢-$20.04

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.7

Value

$43.91

PnL

+$1.21

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.